The countries comprising the Triple Alliance are changing daily fromagricultural States to industrial States; and they are more and morecompelled to depend upon the uninterrupted importation of their rawmaterials. A war with England, France, and Russia at the same timeappears, fortunately, to be ever more improbable; but the possibilityof such a conflict cannot be excluded, and far-seeing statesmen mustreckon with it. The Triple Alliance countries, which are compelled tohave recourse to large armies, cannot hope to compete successfullywith the fleets of England and France on the high seas. In the eventof a struggle, therefore, our oversea imports would, in a short time,be done away with, and our industries would languish for want of rawmaterial. As things stand to-day, it is not merely the lack of wheatand meat that would drive the country to destruction. Coal and iron andheaven knows what else have also become essential to us. Where, then,shall the Triple Alliance countries look for their raw material if thesea routes are cut off? There is only one means of land communication,and it[Pg 184] leads through Roumania, Bulgaria, and Turkey into Asia Minor.It follows that the Triple Alliance can never see this route barricadedby hostile States; the Triplice must keep this route open at allcosts.... The German military mission in Constantinople is not merelyhelping to reorganise the Turkish army out of pure joy; it must, at thesame time, serve both Turkey and the German Empire. One should alsotake notice of the determination of Germany and Austria not to consentto the proposal for the inter-nationalisation of the stretch of theOrient Railway between Adrianople and Constantinople. The States lyingbetween the eastern border of Hungary and Asia Minor have, indeed, nochoice; they must be the friends and allies of the Triple Alliance; orthey must reckon with the unflinching hostility of the Triple Alliancein any conflict which threatens their independence. Austria, too,has no choice. Either the countries on the Lower Danube must be herfriends, or she must seek to annihilate them. It is as Napoleon said:"the Power that commands Constantinople can command the whole world,provided that it can maintain itself there." And when Bismarck saidthat the whole Balkan Peninsula was not worth the bones of a Pomeraniangrenadier, he could not have foreseen that this territory would oneday become so essential a route for German imports that we should not,if necessary, shirk[Pg 185] a conflict with Russia to maintain our freedom oftrade there.
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